EU 탄소국경조정제도의 경제적 파급영향 분석

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the EU CBAM on international trade and suggest policy of reaction for Korea. The results of the analysis are as follows. First, we find that when the EU unilaterally imposes a carbon tariff, and its trading partners accept it, the EU's export competitiveness increase, but the exports of trading partners such as India and Russia decrease significantly. Second, when trading partners react to the EU's actions by imposing retaliatory tariffs, the EU's exports decline, and the losses of its major trading partners are reduced. Furthermore, intra-regional trade between EU countries increases with the introduction of CBAM, while trade with non-EU countries decreases significantly. Finally, the analysis shows a significant decrease in steel and aluminum trade among the world trade goods. In conclusion, if the EU does not take the initiative to talk with its trading partners to ensure they understand and accept the introduction of CBAMs, they are likely to take retaliatory measures, resulting in a slowdown in global trade. Therefore, Korea should monitor closely the progress of discussion related to this issue and prepare policy to minimize the impact on trade from such action.