An analysis of wood availability under six policy scenarios of commercial forest plantations in Colombia

Abstract

An empirical analysis which compares Colombia's 2019 Forest Plantation for Wood Production Value Chain policy (PFCm policy), aimed at reaching 1.5 Mha of commercial plantations by 2025, with five other policy scenarios, for the period 2015–2047, is presented. We consider two cases with no expansion, and two alternative goals for expansion reaching 0.765 Mha and 2 Mha, and compare the projected volume available for supply of wood with current and projected market demand. The exercise was conducted by designing and using the Colombian Forest Plantation Growth and Yield Simulator for predicting volume available for the supply of the country's unprocessed wood market, and as a consequence, the manufactured wood forest product market. No-expansion scenarios are non-viable options for the current state of the market, while among the expansion paths considered, both the PCFm policy goal and the 2 Mha scenario produce desirable results. This empirical exercise could be useful in quantifying the magnitude of the wood shortage concerns already identified by the PCFm policy, and provide policy-makers and other stakeholders with a more precise framework for adequate action.