Abstract
Abstract Climate change can affect hydrological services in Andean basins, so a possible reduction in water supply can lead to not meeting the needs of different users, which has become a real challenge for decision-makers with regards to water management. This paper presents the results obtained from hydrological modeling exercises in the Gualí River Basin (Colombia) by combining the Hydro-BID modeling tool, which consists of an analytical hydrology database for Latin America and the Caribbean that provides a great advantage for countries with limited information and the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) modeling tool, in order to determine the potential impacts of climate change on unsatisfied demand for water in the basin. The results show a possible decrease in flow compared to current conditions; between 5.8% and 9.56% for CPR 2.6, and between 2.18% and 6.86% for CPR 8.5. The approach presented is useful to ensure that timely decisions are made to meet the demands of users under the conditions of climate change.
Highlights
Integrated water resources management (IWRM) is a worldwide concept that seeks to advance proper water planning and management to ensure its sustainability and conservation, while promoting the generation and access to information in order to solve water-related problems, provide assistance and implement tools and resources that facilitate decision-making
The downscaling process more accurately represents the real conditions of the study area, increasing the correlation between the observed data and the historical data from the General circulation model (GCM)
This is reflected in the results from the RSME metric, which moved from an average of 7.79 cm before downscaling to 1.52 cm afterwards for RCP 2.6, and from 7.97 cm to 1.25 cm in RCP 8.5 for the precipitation variable
Summary
Integrated water resources management (IWRM) is a worldwide concept that seeks to advance proper water planning and management to ensure its sustainability and conservation, while promoting the generation and access to information in order to solve water-related problems, provide assistance and implement tools and resources that facilitate decision-making. To this end, one of the fundamental principles is reducing risk associated with the current and future supply and availability of water. In the specific case of Colombia, despite being considered one of the countries with the largest natural
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