An analysis of the wind power development factors by Generalized Bass Model: A case study of China's eight bases

Abstract

China has developed eight bases to boost the large-scale exploitation of wind power, thereby achieving great success in recent years. In this study, we propose an adjusted technical innovation diffusion model to explore the optimal development paths for the eight bases until 2030. Considering environmental differences, the model mainly takes the following factors into account: economic factors, grid construction, coordination of departments, power system failure and technology diffusion. In addition, we classify the bases into four groups according to their geographical locations and economic development to investigate the common characteristics affecting their development. The empirical analysis indicates that all eight bases may achieve their development goals by 2020, but not all may reach their 2030 goals under most circumstances. The effect of incentive policies varies significantly among regions due to differences in available resources and economic development. Grid availability act as the biggest obstacle to wind power development in regions with abundant resources and underdeveloped economies, whereas a subsidy is the key driver of wind power diffusion in developed regions.