An Analysis of the Structure of Interest Rates in Taiwan: An Application of the Vector ARIMA Model

Abstract

The structure of interest rates in Taiwan is analysed through the vector ARIMA approach using monthly and quarterly data from 1978 to 1989. These rates are the regulated bank interest rate and unregulated money market interest rates in the formal financial market and the kerb rate in the informal market. The results show that the adjustments in the bank interest rate follow that of the money market interest rate. Furthermore, the time lag has been shortened from one quarter in the early stages of interest rate liberalization in Taiwan to only one month in the later stages. Increases in the money market interest rate might be followed by an increase in the kerb market interest rate because of partial market segmentation. In periods when there is excess supply of funds in the banking sector, an increase in the bank rate might be followed by a decrease of the kerb rate. The interest rates structure of Taiwan is relevant to developing countries which have an informal financial sector.