Abstract
The spring-to-summer transition is of special importance in long range forecasting, as the general circulation transitions to a less energetic regime. This affects the Midwestern United States in a profound way, since agriculture is very sensitive to the variability of weather and climate. Beginning at the local scale, surface temperature observations are used from a representative station in the West Central Missouri Plains region in order to identify the shift from late spring to early summer. Using upper-air re-analyses as a supplement, the 500-mb height observations are examined to find a spring-to-summer transition date by tracking the location of a representative contour. Each of these is used to identify spring-to-summer transition date and then statistical analysis is performed on this long-term data set. Finally, teleconnections, specifically the influence of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and blocking are examined in order to quantify interannual variability. It was found that examining these criteria, developed in an earlier study that covered a much shorter time period, produced similar statistics to this 68-year study of spring-to-summer transitions. It was also found that the onset of La Ni?a was associated with hotter summers in the region, a result first found in the earlier study, but this association was much stronger here.
Highlights
The West Central Plains, including Missouri, is a region that exhibits strong seasonality, and interannual and inter decadal variability
We demonstrate using the integrated regional enstrophy (IRE) that the stability of the northern hemisphere flow (IRE) increases in association with the time period identified for the spring-to-summer transition date
Pacific region blocking showed a strong increase in occurrence and days, but not intensity, and more summer season blocking was associated with cooler summers and the transition toward El Niño
Summary
The West Central Plains, including Missouri, is a region that exhibits strong seasonality, and interannual and inter decadal variability. Seasonal transition is recognized as a problem in dynamic meteorology, but research on the Northern Hemisphere spring to summer transition is noted in fewer than ten academic research papers ([2], and references therein). It was noted, that more than 9000 articles appear in a search for “seasonal transitions” in the American Meteorological Society’s online journals (http://www.journals.ametsoc.org). [2] used the Wave Amplitude Index to show that the spring to summer transition could be more gradual or quite abrupt in the west-central plains region. It is important to extend our knowledge in identifying these transitions, in order to improve the capability of long-range forecasting, which will in turn impact different sectors of Missouri’s culture and economy
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
