An Analysis of the Significant Decline in Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2008

Abstract

Fatalities in motor vehicle traffic crashes reached 43,510 in 2005. This was the highest number of fatalities reached since 1990. Since this recent peak, the number of reported fatalities has steadily declined every year, down to 37,261 in 2008. In particular, the number of fatalities reported for 2008, by NHTSA’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), decreased by almost 10 percent as compared to 2007. The 37,261 fatalities reported for 2008 also represented the lowest level of traffic fatalities since 1961. With fatalities projected to decline again in 2009 (down to 33,963), this would mean that between 2005 and 2009 motor vehicle traffic crash fatalities have declined almost 22 percent. Also in 2008, the fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) reached an all-time low of 1.25. The decline (down 2 percent) in the VMT was much less significant than the decline in the fatalities (down 10 percent). In addition to the sustained benefits from various vehicle and behavioral programs, the objective of this report is to identify areas that contributed to this significant decline in 2008. This report analyzes crash data from FARS and the National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System (NASS GES), along with data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), to provide insight into the recent decline in fatalities. While the recorded number of fatalities is projected to significantly decline again in 2009 (down around 9%), the FARS data will not be available until the fall of 2010 for in-depth analysis. A significant decline from 2007 to 2008, slightly higher than 17 percent, was recorded for fatalities in crashes involving young drivers of passenger vehicles (ages 16-24). In comparison, fatalities in crashes involving passenger vehicle drivers between the ages of 25 to 44 decreased by about 11 percent, those between 45-64 years old decreased by about 10 percent, and those 65 years old and older decreased by about 7 percent. Child fatalities (under 16 years old) decreased by about 20 percent. Other areas of significant declines in fatalities were those that occurred in multiple-vehicle crashes (about 13%), crashes involving large trucks (about 12%), crashes that occurred during the weekend (about 11%) and for occupant fatalities in vehicles that rolled over in multiple-vehicle crashes (19%). Motorcyclist and pedalcyclist fatalities showed an increase in 2008. The long-term declining trend observed in fatalities since reaching a high in the early 1970s has occurred while significant vehicle and occupant safety regulations and programs were being enacted by NHTSA and the States. NHTSA-administered behavioral and vehicle safety programs, both in the crashworthiness and crash avoidance areas, and through the issuing of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards has contributed significantly to the long-term downward trend seen in motor vehicle traffic crash fatalities. Roadway improvements, as well as commercial vehicle programs have also contributed to the decline. In addition to the continued effect of these safety countermeasures, the large drop in fatalities in 2008 and 2009 has also coincided with a recession in the U.S. economy.