An Analysis of the Relationship between Instability of Agricultural Water Resources and Rural Development (Case Study: Rural Settlements of Zayandeh-Rud Basin Downstream)

Abstract

Extended abstract 1. INTRODUCTION Water is a major concern for sustainable development in twenty-first century, as experts believe that issues will become a major crisis in upcoming years, even as a world war over water. Instability of resources as drought or shortage has affected many countries throughout history, especially arid regions and has many damages and consequences in economic, social and environmental aspects. Zayandeh-Rud basin in central Iran is a with problems. Zayandehrood River that originates from Zardkuh Bakhtiary Mountain is most important river of for development of agriculture, and a supply for heavy industry and also drinking sectors and is also very important in all of economic activities. Climate instability in recent decades and ever-increasing usage of river over time have led to instability of agricultural resources or droughts in recent years. Instability of agricultural resources has consequences in economic, social, political and ecological aspects, especially in rural settlements. This study focuses on environmental, economic, and social consequences of instability of agricultural resources or drought in rural settlements of sub-area of Zayandeh-Rud River (eastern part of Isfahan) and its relationship with rural development in study area. 2. METHODOLOGY The research is based on descriptive-analytical and quantitative method. Statistical population of research is villages in downstream part of Zayandeh-Rud basin. The population sample was chosen based on Cochran formula and through stratified probability sampling. The study area in down part of river (from Isfahan city to Gavkhoni marsh) was divided into two parts, Western and Eastern according to geographic, socio-cultural and political indicators; then, four districts were selected in ruling classes research. The estimated number for 33153 rural households was 380 but number was reduced to 323 people during study, due to limitations and exclusion of incorrect questionnaire. The estimation for sample of settlements was 25 villages. Questionnaires were divided into economic, social and environmental indicators in study area and indices were compared before and after drought. In following, average of research triples indices (economic, social, and environmental) in SPSS software was analyzed. Then, results were analyzed using one sample T-test, and then compared to significant differences of impacts of drought in various rural districts using ANOVA test. The average score for each section of research is result of analysis and calculations in research. 3. DISCUSSION The assessment of consequences of drought was analyzed in three dimensions: environmental, economic, and social. To measure economic consequences of instability of resources (droughts) 27 indicators were used, and based on people's responses to effects of drought on economic indicators average of 23.4 was obtained. The greatest impact of drought or shortage in indices was allocated respectively to reliance on government aid such as subsidies, “reduction of income and the spread of unemployment. To measure social consequences of instability of resources (droughts) 31 indices were studied and average of social indexes in a range of five-item Likert scale was 4.02. The analysis of social indicators in study area settlements shows that droughts are main reasons for more heavily indebted people, more stressful living and increased psychological pressures and increasing poverty in those studied areas. Reviews of immigration factors have also shown a direct impact of drought on migration of people from villages. Thirteen indexes are used to assess environmental effects of resources instability. The highest impact of drought on environmental indicators is in drying quants, wells and springs, reducing amount of surface water and the increase of depth of wells (a sharp decline in groundwater levels)”, and least effect is seen on following Indicators: more fire in natural environment of region and reduction of medicinal plants. The average of environmental impacts of droughts is 4/24. The results show that there is no significant difference between rural districts in study area in terms of impact of drought; this means that rural districts in study area are relatively similar with regard to impact of negative consequences of drought in various aspects. 5. CONCLUSION With instability of resources in agricultural sector, natural and human environment in had been affected and also many environmental, economic, social consequences in human settlements of area had been occurred. Since settlement of area (particularly villages) has an agricultural-based economy and is heavily dependent on rivers, “the dried river” had negatively impacted various indicators of environmental and human dimensions. In sum, based on fieldwork research (observation, interviews, and questionnaires), economy of study area was dependent on Zayandeh-Rud River and with “the dried-out river” permanent flow of river had ceased, and consequently all of environmental, economic, and social aspects of rural settlements all around riverbanks had been degraded. Also environmental, economic, and social sustainability are seriously in a grave situation. Finally, instability of agricultural resources has many ill effects on process of rural development in study area.