An Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Myanmar during 1990-2014

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Myanmar over the period 1990-2014. It covers the annual data of GDP, Export and Import of Myanmar from 1980 to 2014. This study adopts two major methodological approaches – exploratory data analysis and descriptive analysis. For the first approach, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Granger causality test are used under the framework of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, which have almost never been studied for the Myanmar case. The second approach includes the analysis of Myanmar’s foreign trade trend with descriptive statistics. The results show that foreign trade did not generate a significant effect on the economic growth of Myanmar. Rather, import growth was negatively influenced by the economic growth of Myanmar. It is found out that exports had been determined by the GDP growth. Thus, growth-driven export strategy had been applied for the period of 1990-2014. Also, there was only one causal run from export growth to import growth. The results conclude that foreign trade did not have significant impact on the economic growth of Myanmar over the period of 1990-2014.