An Analysis of the Policy Change from One-Child to the Universal Two-Child in China -- Based on the Theories of the Advocacy Coalition Framework

Abstract

In the early 20th century, China gradually adjusted its family planning policy due to the unbalanced population structure. From the selective two-child policy in 2013 to the universal two-child policy in 2016, China ended the one-child policy that had lasted for decades. In fact, after the implementation of the selective two-child policy, it has always been a hot topic of public debate. However, the government has been cautious about this issue and has yet to make a clear statement. After much debate, the universal two-child policy was introduced. The existing literature mainly analyzes the reason and purpose of introducing the two-child policy but rarely analyzes the policy agenda setting in the process of policy change. Therefore, this paper will analyze Chinas fertility system based on the agenda-setting processs internal mechanism. As the leading theory of agenda setting, the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) helps explain the causal relationship between the policy of one child and the policy of universal two-child policy in China; this provides a new perspective for understanding Chinas general and significant policy changes. Therefore, this paper will analyze the internal logic and the dynamic mechanism of the process of two-child policy change and assess the interpretation limits of the Advocacy Coalition Framework in the policy process in China.