An Analysis of the Economic Impact of US Presidential Elections Based on Principal Component and Logical Regression

Jing-Jing Wang,Jin-Tao Su,Jia-Ming Zhu,Yan Liang,Shaohui Wang

doi:10.1155/2021/5593967

Jing-Jing Wang, Jin-Tao Su + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5593967

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Abstract

Economy is one of the major issues in the United States presidential election campaign. In order to investigate the impact of the US presidential election on the economy, this paper first constructs an analysis model of the economic impact on the United States based on stepwise regression and principal component analysis to analyze the focus of different candidates’ attention on the economic issues and its possible impact on the US economy in the election year and after the election; secondly, a Chinese economic impact analysis model based on factor analysis and machine learning logistic regression was constructed to analyze the impact of the US presidential election on the Chinese economy. At the same time, the future economic development of the United States and China based on the time series prediction model is forecast and analyzed, respectively. Finally, the countermeasures and policy suggestions on China’s related economic development are put forward.

Highlights

As we all know, an election for the President of the United States occurs every four years. e 2020 United States presidential election was scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. e Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden have different policy views on finance, trade, economics, environmental governance, and other key development areas. ey have great differences in prevention measures, domestic infrastructure construction, tax policy, environmental protection policy, medical endowment insurance policy, employment policy, foreign trade policy, immigration policy, and national education policy.Different candidates will shape different strategic development models for the social and economic development of the United States
Is paper mainly studies the following problems. (i) Using relevant data to quantitatively analyze the possible impact of election of different candidates on the American economy. (ii) Using relevant data to quantitatively analyze the possible impact of the election of different candidates on the Chinese economy. (iii) To put forward suggestions on the policies concerning the economic development of China
Through the correlation analysis method and according to the correlation coefficient test results to establish a stepwise regression model, the stepwise regression equation of five indexes and the coefficients of each index are obtained. en, the principal component analysis method is used to establish the principal component analysis model to solve the weight of the five indexes. e weight level of each indicator represents the degree to which the US presidential candidate attaches importance to this area of economic development and the level of influence that presidential candidates may have on the development of the United States economy

Summary

Introduction

An election for the President of the United States occurs every four years. e 2020 United States presidential election was scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. e Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden have different policy views on finance, trade, economics, environmental governance, and other key development areas. ey have great differences in prevention measures, domestic infrastructure construction, tax policy, environmental protection policy, medical endowment insurance policy, employment policy, foreign trade policy, immigration policy, and national education policy. E election of different candidates as the President of the United States will have a different impact on China’s economic development and have a greater impact on the United States economy. Is has aroused the concern of the major trading partners of the United States in the AsiaPacific region, has an important impact on the global strategy and foreign policy of the United States, has brought uncertainty to the development of Sino-US relations and the United States Asia-Pacific alliance system, and will affect the economic and security situation in the Asia-Pacific region. E factors that influence and shape the stability of Sino-US strategic consensus after Trump came to power include leadership personality, leadership style and team, structural factors of China and the United States, and their cognition.

Basic Assumptions

Analysis Procedure

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Conclusion