An Analysis of the Demand Market of Indonesia Plywood in Japan

Abstract

The Indonesian plywood industry began to rapidly develop in the 1980s, since the government stated a new policy regarding a ban on the export of wood logs in 1985. The industry has experienced rapid growth and structural change and played an important part in the Indonesian economy through a significant role as a gross domestic product, foreign exchange, government revenue, and employment contributor. The aims of this study are to analyze the current situation of Indonesian plywood consumption and to estimate the demand market of Indonesian plywood for the next five years in Japan. For the purposes of the study, data of the export of Indonesian plywood to sixteen countries over five years (2008-2012) and data of plywood exported to Japan over thirty one years (1982-2012) was collected. To predict demand market of Indonesian plywood in Japan, the obtained data was analyzed by using an exponential smoothing model. Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Deviation are also used to calculate demand sales forecast accuracy. The results indicated that the future market of Indonesian plywood in Japan will remain fairly constant at the level of 1.09 million m 3 in 2013 until 2017. Japan is still the dominant market for Indonesian plywood.