Abstract
Abstract An assessment was made of the 120-h predictions by the medium range forecast (MRF) run of the National Meteorological Center's (NMC's) global spectral model. The ability of the model to forecast surface cyclones and anticyclones was evaluated and compared to shorter range (48 h) forecasts by the NMC Nested Grid Model (NGM) verifying at the same time. The study covers a period from 15 April 1991 through 20 December 1991 over a domain extending from 30°N to 50°N and from 60°W to 130°W. Results showed that the MRF at the 120-h range tended to underforecast the frequency of surface cyclones and anticyclones in the Rocky Mountain region and, in general, to forecast anticyclones and cyclones farther away from the observed systems than did the 48-h NGM verifying at the same time. The forecasts for central sea level pressures averaged within 1.5 hPa of the forecasts of pressure by the NGM. Averaged over regions and seasons, the 120-h MRF errors in many cases were statistically indistinguishable from the ...
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