Abstract
This paper looks at the National Pupil Database for England in terms of variables that could be used by universities to help them assess undergraduate applications. Where a young person is obviously disadvantaged, this can be taken into account in contextualised admissions. Of the indicators available, which give the most accurate assessment of that context—singly or in combination? This paper looks at missing data, and what is known about students for whom data is missing. It looks at changes in indicators of potential disadvantage over time. And it looks at the relationship between all indicators and student attainment and progress at school. The safest and clearest indicators are the sex (male) and age in year (summer born) of a student but neither of these is currently considered in widening participation. Otherwise, the best general indicator is eligibility for free school meals (poverty), and this is best computed as the number of years a student has been known to be eligible. Having a special educational need is also a promising indicator, but doubts are raised about its validity and it anyway covers a wide range of factors, some of which are already dealt with by the education system. Very few students registered as living in care continue in education post-16, and this indicator could be used safely and to advantage. The rest, including area measures, school type, performance relative to school, ethnicity and first language are generally not safe to use.
Highlights
The student intakes to universities in the UK are and have always been stratified socio-economic and other characteristics (Gorard et al, 2007)—perhaps more so in the UK than other developed countries (Jerrim & Vignoles, 2015)
The analyses in this paper are based on the National Pupil Database (NPD), with records for all pupils in England who ended Key Stage 4 (KS4) in 2012, 2014 and 2015, and KS5 in 2008
Index of Deprivation as a Child Indicator (IDACI) is an aggregated index representing the proportion of children under the age of 16 in any super output area in the UK, living in a low income household
Summary
The student intakes to universities in the UK are and have always been stratified socio-economic and other characteristics (Gorard et al, 2007)—perhaps more so in the UK than other developed countries (Jerrim & Vignoles, 2015). The paper looks at those indicators that could be used, and which form part of the National Pupil Database (NPD) for England. This means that they are officially required from schools, usually have a legal definition, and can be made available to admissions authorities. The first stage of the models is identical to above, predicting 65% of the variation in outcomes with prior attainment as the best single predictor. In the second stage, when school average points score is added the variation explained does increase by a very small amount (R=0.02, 0.04%). Given the omitted variables (not available), missing data and level of imprecision in these predictors, this increase is not sufficient to base contextualised admissions on
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