Abstract

The risk factors associated with fish production were examined in Kaduna metropolis of Nigeria. A multi stage sampling method was used in sampling a total of 240 respondents with the aid of structured questionnaires which were administered to fish farmers. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics and Bayesian decision models. The result shows that farmers in the study area have an average age of about 37.8 years and an average household size of about 5 people. An average sampled fish farmer in the study area had a minimum of secondary education. The three major risk factors identified in the study area includes diseased/parasites, flooding resulting from excessive rain and pilfering with posterior probabilities of occurrence of 0.34, 0.46 and 0.20 respectively. it is recommended that farmers should stock disease resistant varieties ,put in place adequate disease preventive measures, arrange for prompt veterinary attention when ever there is outbreak of diseases and also ensure good security around their farms.

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