An analysis of regional carbon stock response under land use structure change and multi-scenario prediction, a case study of Hefei, China

Abstract

As the largest global carbon pool system, terrestrial ecosystems have an important role to maintain the stability of ecosystems. Human activities affect the structural changes in the ground surface and interfere with terrestrial ecosystem evolution, and consequently, carbon stock is changed in the region. Therefore, forecasting future carbon stock changes under different land use scenarios has important research implications for promoting stable evolution and cycling of terrestrial ecosystems. This study is conducted with the land use data from 2000 to 2020, and incorporates the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs model to analyze the changes in land use in Hefei, and its influence on the carbon stock in Hefei in various scenarios. During the study period, the mutual conversion between different land types in Hefei City made the land structure change within the study area more significant. The rapidly evolving surface structure is the reason for the decrease of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, with a cumulative decrease of 1.2 × 108 t. The spatial distribution in carbon storage in the study area shows a distribution pattern of low in the north and high in the south. The high carbon storage area is obviously banded in the study area. The area with obvious changes in surface structure has more obvious changes in carbon storage. Compared with the natural development scenario, the downward trend of carbon storage in the ecological protection scenario and the comprehensive development scenario has slowed down due to the restrictions on the structural transformation of land types and the implementation of relevant ecological protection policies. Therefore, this study will support the future management and policy making of Hefei City with the background of China's “double carbon” target and the significant position of Hefei City.