An analysis of recycling impacts on solid waste generation by time series intervention modeling

Abstract

Abstract Successful operation of solid waste management systems frequently depends on accurate predictions of solid waste generation. Conventional prediction models are usually estimated based on demographic and socioeconomic factors in a per-capita basis. The per-capita coefficients may be taken as fixed over time or they may be projected to change with time. However, time series data of solid waste generation consist of observations made over a number of years at the same location. By analyzing time series data, forecasters can identify trends embedded in solid waste generation over time and can develop hypotheses regarding the policy change or the continuation of these trends into the future. At present, the impacts of recycling activities has received wide attention at different levels of government agency and the effect of successful recycling programs inevitably adds more uncertainties in the prediction of solid waste generation. This analysis applies time series intervention modeling to evaluate recycling impacts on solid waste generation. A demonstration of how this forecasting information can be used for the capacity evaluation of incinerators in Taipei City of Taiwan is also included in this paper.