An analysis of provincial economic growth in South Africa 1991–2001*

Abstract

During the last decade South Africa's regional development policy underwent a definite change in character. It evolved from being dominated by political criteria to one with greater emphasis on economic realities and constraints facing the country and subsequently the provinces as well. The provinces are engaged in a number of initiatives to promote economic growth and development in their regions. The question that comes to mind is where the success stories are and what are the determining factors in them? The aim of this article is therefore to evaluate and compare the economic growth performance of the various provinces in South Africa during the last decade. The article is organised as follows. The analysis will consist of a brief discussion of the latest developments in regional development policy in South Africa. This will be followed by the calculation of sectoral growth rates in the provinces for the period between 1991 and 2001. The findings will be further supplemented by the inclusion of rank correlation analysis in an attempt to identify determinants of economic growth. Possible explanations of the trends, relative successes and failures observed will be identified and presented.