Abstract
Wholesale prices as well as retail prices of rice increased sharply towards the end of 2007 and 2008. The year 2008/09 rice prices of Samba , Kakulu and Nadu rice have reached Rs 70, Rs 65 and Rs 50 respectively. Therefore, the objective of this study were to identify the price behaviour of rice in Sri Lanka, to develop the appropriate price forecasting model for rice and to identify the farmers’ perception on high rice price in resent past. Year wise nominal market price for Samba , Nadu , and Kakulu rice were collected form different secondary sources. Further, a survey was carried out in Thissamaharama to measure the farmers' perception on high rice prices in the recent past. Forty five farmers were randomly selected to collect the primary data.Year-wise nominal market price (NMP) of all types of rice had increased continuously. However, the real market prices (RMP) of rice have decreased. The Compound Growth Model (CGR) was most appropriate to analyze the price behaviour of Samba and Nadu rice while quadratic model was suitable for Kakulu rice in term of NMP. Further, CGR model was suitable to analyze the price behaviour of Samba while Quadratic model was suitable for Nadu and Kakulu rice in term of RMP. However, 44% of farmers were satisfied with the high rice price. According to the farmer view, price increment was a result of oligopolistic behaviour of middlemen and insufficient government involvement to control the price. Key words: Nominal market price; Price behaviour; Price forecasting; Real market price DOI: 10.4038/tare.v12i2.2795 Tropical Agricultural Research & Extension 12(2): 2009 pp.81-84
Highlights
Sri Lanka is a developing country with an area of 65,610km2 and population of 20.2 million as estimated in 2008, (Central Bank 2008)
With regard to the real prices of Samba, Nadu and Kakulu rice have decreased by 4 %, 3% and 5% respectively per annum
Compound Growth Model (CGR) model was most appropriate model to analyze the price behaviour of Samba and Nadu rice while Quadratic model was suitable for Kakulu rice in term of nominal price
Summary
Sri Lanka is a developing country with an area of 65,610km and population of 20.2 million as estimated in 2008, (Central Bank 2008). Rice is the main crop cultivated by the majority of farmers in rural areas and it is the staple food of the 18.6 million inhabitants in Sri Lanka. It is the livelihood of more than 1.8 million farmers. Paddy production in 2008 year was increased by 23.8 %, (Central Bank 2008). The Government stipulated the maximum retail prices for rice, on 17th of
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