An analysis of prediction error for new prime-time television programmes: a comparative study between the USA and Korea

Abstract

This study investigates possible factors in prediction error for audience share for new prime-time television programmes in the USA and Korea. While previous studies have focused on the factors affecting the size of a programme's actual audience, little attention has been paid to the accuracy of audience share prediction. A total of 193 new prime-time TV programmes from 1994 to 1997 for the USA and from 1998 to 2001 for Korea were examined. Advertising industry forecasters' predicted audience share, and actual share data were accumulated from Broadcasting & Cable and Weekly Nielsen Reports. Findings show that the ‘Programme Type’, ‘Returning Lead-Ins’ and ‘Returning Lead-Outs’ worked as significant factors for estimating error in audience share in the USA, and ‘Programme Type’ and ‘Programme Length’ played major roles in forecasting error in Korea. The degrees of relationship with forecasting error are consistent with previous studies' findings. Similarities and dissimilarities in prediction error in both countries were found and are discussed in this study.