An analysis of Patterns of Change Arising from the Syrian Conflict: Islamic Terrorism, Refugee Flows and Political Destabilization in Europe

Erika Brady

doi:10.15664/jtr.1298

Abstract

This paper set out to explore whether the Syrian Conflict has impacted security issues outside its borders, in particular in Europe. With a wide range of challenges related to the conflict, now in its sixth year, issues such as the rise of ISIS and the refugee crisis in Europe have been linked to political destabilization on the continent and within the EU. By looking at data presented by the Global Terrorism Database and the United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCR), this study set out to observe any patterns in Islamic terrorist activity and numbers of refugees in Europe during the period 2006 to 2015. Academic reports based on empirical studies as well as media reports were also analyzed to further the research and allow for in-depth assessment of the issue as a whole.

Highlights

Since the outset of the Syrian Conflict, Europe has been impacted by an unprecedented surge in refugees entering the region from beyond its borders, sparking a crisis in the European Union (EU), and has led to an increase in associated problems
77 countries recorded a deterioration in the impact of terrorism, and of the 25 largest increases, nine occurred in OECD countries.” (Global Peace Index, 2016) Further, The Global Terrorism Index 2015 reported “Terrorist activity increased by 80 per cent in 2014 to its highest recorded level...Almost 60 per cent of the countries covered in the GTI experienced no terrorist deaths in 2014...a majority of countries did experience a terrorist incident of some kind...More countries than ever have high levels of terrorism.” (Global Terrorism Index, 2015) This report was based on data for 2014, the year that al-Baghdadi declared the Caliphate
A useful way to investigate whether ISIS, facilitated by the Syrian Conflict, has had a security impact in Europe is to look at the number of fatalities as a result of terrorism in the timeframe of the research

Summary

Introduction

Since the outset of the Syrian Conflict, Europe has been impacted by an unprecedented surge in refugees entering the region from beyond its borders, sparking a crisis in the European Union (EU), and has led to an increase in associated problems. A useful way to investigate whether ISIS, facilitated by the Syrian Conflict, has had a security impact in Europe is to look at the number of fatalities as a result of terrorism in the timeframe of the research While this is not an infallible method of studying this issue, it does provide some scope for analysis, and the data, presented in Figure 2 below, is revealing. The clearly large number of fatalities in 2015 when ISIS was highly active internationally indicates that the group has had some impact on Europe, a causational relationship remains elusive Whether or not this pattern of increased attacks globally (as evidenced in the GTD), and the high number of fatalities in Europe in 2015 (in comparison to previous years), is a direct result of the Syrian Conflict is more difficult to ascertain.

Section 2: Refugee Flows - The European Refugee Crisis

Section 3: Political and Social Impacts – Hate Crimes

Findings

Conclusion