Abstract
This paper examines the complexity of achieving economic growth simultaneously with low carbon transition in Nigeria. Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) seeks to carry out far-reaching cuts capable of reducing the scale of pollution recorded in the country. But the ratification of the agreement also works at cross-purposes with Vision 20:20 and the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) since these development blueprints are heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Qualitative data was used to arrive at the study’s' findings, complemented with quantitative data based on Nigeria Energy Calculator modelling tool for analyzing energy demand and supply in the country. The paper observed that a plethora of issues were impediments to the implementation of the NDC. That, fossil fuel energy generation as palliative is incapable of addressing issues of externality. Thus, Nigeria needs a new socio-economic contract termed the Food Sufficiency Economy (FSE) to usher in a net zero carbon trajectory. FSE is a convergence of food sovereignty and sufficiency economy. It is also in line with Africa’s eco-bio-communitarianism perspective, but slanted towards Climate-Smart Agriculture as the building block for a low carbon and climate resilient future.
 Okoh, A. I. S. | Department of Political Science, Benue State University Makurdi, Nigeria.
Highlights
Nigeria is a party to the United Nation's Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which entered into legal force on 4th November, 2016 when 55% of the global emitters and over 55 countries who are the major emitters ratified the accord
As a party to the UNFCCC, Nigeria acceded to significant reduction of greenhouse gas emission by placing the economy on a low carbon trajectory
Vision 20:2020 which is the development blueprint of the country is targeted at transforming the country by 2020 with fossil energy acting as a driver of economic growth (Adebisi, 2013; Bala, 2014; Cervigni et al, 2013; Roche et al, 2017)
Summary
This study relies on Nigeria Energy Calculator (NECAL2050) designed by the Energy Commission of Nigeria based on International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) formulated analytical modelling tools of Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) and Model for Energy Supply Strategy and General Environmental (MESSAGE) impacts, for the analysis of energy demand and supply. Inter-ministerial tussle stymied a zero-carbon growth, thereby eroding the existing policies efficacy Even where such policies achieve minimal success, allocation in the 2016 and 2017 Appropriation Bills are insufficient to foster a clean energy transition, neither can it meet the country’s obligation of improving energy efficiency by 20% unconditional leading to the provision of 13 GW of renewable electricity to rural communities currently off-grid. At this rate of investment in the power sector, government cannot realize its vision 20:2020 neither can it foster the attainment of 30,000MW of power enunciated in the Vision 30:30:30 target. Government has only succeeded in supplanting one form of pollution for the other
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