An Analysis of Large-Scale Forced Migration in Africa.

Murat Bayar,Mustafa M Aral

doi:10.3390/ijerph16214210

Murat Bayar, Mustafa M Aral

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16214210

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Abstract

In this paper, human security-related causes of large-scale forced migration (LSFM) in Africa are investigated for the period 2011–2017. As distinct from the conventional understanding of (national) security, human security involves economic, public health, environmental and other aspects of people’s wellbeing. Testing various hypotheses, we have found that civil and interstate conflicts, lack of democracy and poverty are the most important drivers of mass population displacements, whereas climate change has an indirect effect on the dependent variable. As a policy tool, foreign aid is also tested to see if it lowers the probability of LSFM. Our findings have implications for policy planning, since the conventional understanding of security falls short of addressing LSFM without taking various aspects of human security into account.

Highlights

The aim of this study is to investigate factors behind forced migration in Africa
Our findings indicate that violent conflicts, authoritarian regimes and poverty are the primary causes of large-scale forced migration (LSFM) in Africa
The ordered logistic regression analysis in Model 1 indicates that civil/interstate violence and political regime type are the most powerful predictors of large-scale forced migration in Africa. Their directions support Hypothesis 2 and Hypothesis 3: the higher the aggregated level of civil and interstate violence (H2) and the lower the level of democracy (H3), the higher the likelihood of LSFM in a country. These results are not surprising, since violence and repression are considered as primary causes of forced migration

Summary

Introduction

The aim of this study is to investigate factors behind forced migration in Africa. Our underlying assumption is that large-scale forced migration (LSFM) is a special case of population displacement, since it affects a sizable portion of a country’s population (at least 5 percent in our study). Africa constitutes our spatial parameter, because the continent had (as of February 2019) 6.3 million refugees and 14.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), who make up more than a third of all forcibly displaced people in the world [1]. The literature indicates that the likely causes of mass migration include socioeconomic, environmental, political and health-related factors, most of which can be studied under the concept of human security [2]. Since LSFM involves a sizable portion of a country’s population, it is more likely to transcend national borders and put pressure on transit and destination countries than small-scale migration. The EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa has been created with financial and non-financial resources amounting to 3.39 billion euros with the purpose of assisting origin countries [3]

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