An analysis of iron ore prices during the latest commodity boom

Abstract

This paper performs a quantitative analysis of iron ore prices, and is an extension of Wårell (2014), which analyzed the change in iron ore pricing regime on iron ore prices using data from 2003 until September 2012. However, considering that the iron ore market still was characterized by surging prices in 2012, it is of interest to see if the same conclusions hold today when the latest commodity boom has come to an end. The quantitative analysis uses monthly data between January 2003 and June 2017, and performs both statistical tests for structural breaks and a reduced price regression of the most important factors for iron ore prices during the time period. The overall results indicate that the change in pricing regime does not have a significant impact on the iron ore prices when extending the time period; rather, it is the end of the commodity boom in 2014 that is picked up as a structural break in the price series. Furthermore, results regarding whether the variables are cointegrated are more inconclusive when analyzing the entire commodity boom. However, the result that GDP growth in China has had the strongest impact on iron ore prices is though robust when extending the time period. To conclude, even though the commodity boom now has come to an end the developments in China still seems to be the most influential factor determining international iron ore prices.