An analysis of industrial water conservation potential and selection of key technologies based on the IWCPA model

Abstract

This paper analyses the changes in the water efficiency of the production processes and technologies in five high-water-consuming sectors (HWCS; thermal power, iron and steel, paper production, textiles, and petrochemical) since 1980. The study concludes that the main factors constraining water conservation include: backward technologies and processes; irrational industrial scale and composition and raw materials composition; as well as regional distribution. Based on 1980 data on the level of technology, technological progress, and water efficiency, the study uses the bottom–up modeling approach; the end-of-pipe water use analysis method; and the cost-benefit analysis method to establish the industrial water conservation potential analysis (IWCPA) model. Taking 2002 as the baseline year, the IWCPA is used to simulate and calculate water demand and water conservation potential of China's industries under different technology scenarios between 2003 and 2030. Based on the assessment of different technologies for individual sectors and across sectors, key priority technologies are proposed for five HWCS. Lastly, the paper, based on an uncertainty analysis of the parameters used in the model, talks about the impact of water pricing and other factors on future water demand and water conservation potential by industrial sectors. The paper shows that the demand for water by China's industrial sectors will experience sustained growth till 2020, and that this trend is unlikely to be reversed unless measures are taken to promote water conservation through upgrading technology and making industrial structural adjustments. The water conservation potential of key common technologies accounts for over 60% of water consumption by high-water-consuming sectors. The economic benefits from improving production processes are far greater than those from reuse or recycling technologies only. The current price of water is too low, and needs to be raised to at least 2.7 Yuan/ton in order to fully exploit the potential for industrial water conservation.