An analysis of extreme movements of exchange rates of the main currencies traded in the Foreign Exchange market

Abstract

This article analyses the extreme movements of exchange rates of the seven main currencies traded in the Foreign Exchange market against the US dollar: Euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar by using tail index indicators. Payaslioğlu (2009) considers the case of the Turkish exchange rate using the traditional Hill (1975) estimator as a tool. In this article, we employ also an alternative estimator proposed in Iglesias and Linton (2009) that is shown to have, in some cases, improved finite sample properties and it provides substantially different results versus the Hill estimator. We find that for the Euro, Japanese Yen, Swiss franc, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Hill estimator provides a better measure to analyse the extreme behaviour; while for the British pound, the Iglesias and Linton alternative estimator is superior by using Hausman-type tests of misspecification. Measures of value at risk are also provided for the seven markets. We also find that the largest estimated value at risk by far is for the Japanese Yen, followed by the Swiss franc, the Canadian dollar, the Euro, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar. The UK pound has the smallest value at risk when extreme movements occur.