An Analysis of Energy Security Using the Partial Equilibrium Model: The Case of Pakistan

Assessing the potential of renewable energy sources in Turkey

Energy and GDP analysis of OECD countries

As a landlocked country producing no fossil fuels, Switzerland relies heavily on hydro-electricity and nuclear power to meet the bulk of its electricity needs. Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland has a relatively high share of hydro-electricity. The Government has announced that nuclear power, which accounted for nearly 30% of the total energy supply (TES) in 2018, will gradually be phased out with Swiss voters backing the proposal in a May 2017 referendum. In the wake of this electoral decision, the Mühleberg nuclear power plant went off-line, marking the first of five Swiss nuclear power reactors to be decommissioned. Due to the scarcity of fossil-fuel production and the overhaul of the country’s policy towards nuclear power, imports of types of energy products account for over a half of the country’s total primary energy supply in 2018.

Nepal is 100% dependent on imported petroleum products as it has no as yet viable proven reserve. The import of petroleum is increasing at an alarming rate (15.2% annually) which is creating not only a burden on the national economy but also raising the issue of energy supply security and environmental degradation. In this study, eleven distinct significant indicators have been used to evaluate the energy security status of the country. Since there is no such detailed quantification of indicators carried out in previous research, this study can be a significant input to policymakers and planners. It also explores the policy intervention measures to improve energy security status in the context of a developing country that is increasingly dependent on imported commercial fuels. Five different scenarios have been developed considering 2017 as a base year and 2040 as an end year with different economic growth rates 4.5%, 7.2% and 9.2% as main driving parameter. Two additional policy intervention scenarios (Policy-I and Policy-II), prioritizing electrification to enhance energy security, have been analyzed. The energy demands have been projected using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED), while the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) tool has been used to analyze the supply, the energy supply requirement, fuel import dependence, cost, as well as the size of power plant requirement under different scenarios. The results manifest that there would be a reduction in Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) requirement by 1.14% and 8.7% under policy-I and Policy-II scenarios respectively in the year 2040, compared to the reference scenario (7.2%) resulting in improved energy security, economic vulnerability, and GHG mitigation. It indicates that the use of indigenous renewable energy resources mainly hydro is indispensable for ensuring the energy security of Nepal.

This paper reviews past Japan's natural gas demand by sectors, highlighted in the primary energy supply and final energy consumption during the last few decades and to introduce the latest 1996 outlook on Japanese long-term energy supply/demand forecast up to 2030, which was undertaken by the Advisory Committee for Energy for MITI. According to their interim report issued in December 1996, demand for natural gas energy for Japan shall be increased from 44 million tons of LNG basis (approx., 61 BCM, i.e. billion cubic meters) in 1994, which was 10.8% share of the total primary energy demand of 577 million kiloliters of crude oil equivalent, to 56 Mtons, i. e. million tons with 13% share in 2000 and 63 Mtons with 13 % share in 2010 then up to 68 Mtons with 12% share in 2030 under the current energy conservation measures and new energy introduction plans. Finally the author insists on the necessity of considering possibility of national gas pipelines on Japan island in accordance with future movement of presumable international gas pipeline concepts such as Trans-Asian pipeline and Northeast Asian pipeline in the 21st. century. Introduction Natural gas is quickly moving away from its past image of poor relative of the hydrocarbon family towards much more powerful position in the primary energy resources. Natural gas now occupies about 23% share of world total primary energy supply while its share in Japan is only 11%, why not? To the contrary, crude oil share in Japan is as large as 57% of the total energy demand, compared with 40% level of oil share in the world total average. In fact, natural gas business in the world started in 1950's much later than oil business that was initiated in the mid of the 19th. century. Therefore, the exploration and the development of natural gas have not been matured yet so that its reserves assessment may be still ambiguous. In another aspect, it is a serious problem that Japan must import more than 80% of the total primary energy demand nevertheless she is the world 4th ranked energy consumer, who exhausts about 6% of the world total energy consumption of 8,136 million tons of oil equivalent per annum. In recent years, global environment problems such as global warming and acid rain have been discussed extensively in various forums including the United Nations Conference of the Environment and Development (UNCED). In order to prevent from warming the earth by the reduction of CO2 emissions it is essential to work on reforming Japan's energy supply/demand structure because energy is the key factor affecting both economic growth and environment protection. This reform consists of two major elements which are (a) reducing energy consumption needed for given amount of economic activity, in another words efficient use and save of energy, and (b) expanding the use of non-fossil fuel energy such as nuclear energy, hydro power and solar energy etc. Energy Gases, Why Not? 1. Historical Trend of Primary Energy Consumption Many past predictions of future energy supply and demand seem to be unreliable during the last several decades. However, the history of energy use demonstrates clear trend and its tempting to extrapolate these into the near future. In 1956, Dr. M. King Hubbert of the U.S. Geological Survey suggested nearly symmetrical growth and decline curves for the discovery rate of reserves and the production rate for any energy resources. A symmetry in growth and decline in primary energy consumption is also suggested in 1988 by Grubler and Nakicenovic et al, members the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) based in Austria. For example, (Fig. 1) shows percentages of consumption shares of individual primary energy sources in the United States, which are plotted on a normal probability density scale on the axis of ordinates versus time on the abscissas. In the beginning of 19th century, wood was only our primary energy source, while secondary energy sources included water power, wind mill power, peat, agricultural waste and animal and human powers. With development of steam power and the expansion of railroads and the steel industry, use of coal increased exponentially until early decades of 20th century. Then crude oil was discovered in 1859 by Drake in Pennsylvania then introduced into the energy market in 1870's. P. 473^

As energy is a vital element for sustained economic growth and development, therefore energy consumption is used as a basic indicator of people’s living standards. Due to technological and industrial development, the demand of energy in Pakistan is increasing more than the total primary energy supply; therefore, it is confronting the severe energy deficit today. So there should be a serious concern for the government about the energy security and should take actions for the development of indigenous alternative and renewable energy resources. Renewable portfolio supply (RPS), and carbon tax are the two indirect policy options used for the improvement of energy security. Renewable Energy Promotion is used to reduce greenhouse gas emission, promote local energy sources and improve energy security through reducing energy dependency and diversification of energy sources. Carbon tax is an indirect policy option for energy security enhancement through emission reduction. Imposing tax on carbon emission will alter the primary energy supply mix, more efficient fuel and technologies will be substituted for less efficient fuel and technologies. This will reduce the primary energy demand and lead to improved energy security.

Energy Plan-based Planning and Modeling for Renewable Energy System in Beijing

The ever growing and urgent need to be able to recognize and manage - in the best possible way - such a global imbalance in terms of management of natural resources, of environmental changes affecting globally the Earth planet (climate change, pollution by greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, toxic compounds, excessive consumption of fossil fuels, alteration of biodiversity balance and other factors) and the human life quality, has become one of the primary targets to be reached as soon as possible. To try responding to this urgent “Global Environmental Call”, the present study provides an analysis aimed at identifying a potential strategical route to guarantee a sustainable ratio in agriculture. The strong interest in combining Agroforestry System(s) (AFSs) with Environmental Engineering (EE) was able to trigger interesting and promising dynamics between the agricultural scope and the bioenergy’s one. Through a comprehensive review, it was possible to identify and define the main parameters coming into a play in this match, by focusing on the characterization of the biomass as the first source of such a dynamic chain of sustainability. AFSs can be considered as vectors of innovation in the environmental engineering scope because they produce biomass feedstock to be intended as a fundamental ring of the chain aimed at generating the well-known renewable energy (RE), better defined as bioenergy (BE). Such an integrative combination, if carefully managed, could face the numerous environmental challenges by providing – in the longer term – several benefits in various scopes. Focusing on the main biomass conversion processes aimed at producing bioenergy products (heat, power, and biofuels) was the engineering-based ring for better understanding and correlating the different pathways of the bioconversion from biomass to biofuels and power. The consequent quantitative analyses carried out on key energy data andstatistics about Energy Production (EP, [Mtoe]), Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES, [Mtoe]), Electricity Final Consumption (EFC, [TWh]) and Total CO2 Emissions (CO2, [Mt of CO2]) - assessed in Italy from 1990 to 2018 (with a further update until to 2019) - highlighted the energy trends to consequently be compared with the amount expressed in percentage across time from 1990. Then, analyzing the bioenergy indicator total energy supply (TES) by source, precisely by biofuels and waste – from 1990 to 2020 in Italy was useful to outline bioenergy trend in comparison to energy by fossil fuels. Finally, it was placed a focus on worldwide Bioenergy Power Generation (BPG) in the Net Zero Emissions by 2030 to include the new bioenergy paradigm. It has emerged that the European bioenergy Policy developments and sustainability governance need to boost bioenergy growth at a different scale, despite the positive approaches and developments on-going, by tracing sustainable pathways.

The quest to pursue alternative options to fossil fuels on the African continent has been triggered by well-known contemporary imperatives. Biofuels are now an established alternative to fossil fuels. The increasing focus on bioenergy has been buttressed by various policies in many countries in Africa that encourage production and consumption of biofuels. With annual gross domestic product growth rates reaching 5% during the past decade, more than twice that of the 1980s and 1990s, Africa has become one of the fastest growing continents. Access to modern and sustainable energy will be critical to sustain these positive signals. Biomass is by far the most important renewable energy resource in Africa. Bioenergy represents almost 50% of the total primary energy supply for the African continent. Africa is second to Asia supplying and consuming 26% of global bioenergy. Between 2005 and 2012 there was a 22% increase in bioenergy supply in Africa. However, most of this energy is used as heat. Africa produces about 0.3% of electricity from biomass. Africa contributed 0.07% to global production of liquid biofuels in 2012. Given its vast biomass resources, there is scope for enhanced bioenergy production and consumption in Africa through increased investment in the biomass conversion sector.

Analysis of energy security indicators and CO2 emissions. A case from a developing economy

Understanding of the role of energy use at the national level requires the understanding of the relationship of energy use to economic activity and social well-being. Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in a country in one year. There is a close relationship between energy supply, energy consumption, and GDP, which indicates the economic development of a country. The living standard of a country is often measured by the per capita GDP. This article presents the evaluations and future projections of energy and energy resources of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The total primary energy supply, total final energy consumption, and energy intensities for supply and consumption are analysed. The energy data for all OECD countries are presented and analyses of the differences in energy and GDP ratios are conducted at an aggregate level by examining differences in the factors that affect the energy intensities. To provide accurate projections for the future, new correlations are developed between average GDP, total primary energy supply, total final consumption, total per capita primary energy supply, total per capita final consumption and total OECD population. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Humans in this world are very dependent on petroleum and energy. Petroleum and other energies are a major source in supporting human life. Regarding the reduced petroleum availability, a new energy is needed to replace the role of petroleum. Nowadays, there is much renewable energy that have been discovered and used. The purpose of this research is to predict the total primary energy supply in Indonesia by using α-Sutte Indicator and ARIMA method, and comparing those four methods which are effective in predicting data. Data from the research is renewable energy (total primary energy supply) which is obtained from OECD from 1971-2015. From the research, it is found that the α-Sutte Indicator method is more suitable to predict renewable energy (total primary energy supply) data in Indonesia compared to ARIMA (0,1,0).

Energy efficiency as a driver of total primary energy supply in the EU-28 countries – incremental decomposition analysis

Increasing the integration of variable renewable energy in coal-based energy system using power to heat technologies: The case of Kosovo

Energy resources may be described as different categories of fuels used by the humans for heating, generation of electrical energy and other forms of energy conversion processes. These resources are therefore the sources from which energy is derived, produced and supplied for the use of human beings and overall benefit of society. Energy resources are necessary for the day-to-day sustenance and survival of humans and society at large. Energy resources promote the functionality, viability and vitality of other sectors of a country’s economy. The ability of humans to harness energy resources is arguably the most important step in the history of human civilisation. The sources of global energy supply (energy resources) may be considered in two broad categories, namely non-renewable and renewable resources. Petroleum, a focal point of this study, is an example of fossil fuels. Petroleum resources are energy and major natural resources. These resources development operations are extractive industrial operations, which have tremendous negative effects on the environment and inhibit sustainable development. The adverse consequences of petroleum energy and major natural resources development operations affect the oil-rich ethnic minority Delta region and other oil producing areas of Nigeria, as well as the entire Nigerian nation. In the perspective of this study, ethics may be considered as a wide and exploratory subject of discourse, which appears like an elephant that may be described from many standpoints. Obviously, there are certain ethics, ethical issues or ethical conducts (morally good practices) associated with energy and major natural resources development operations in particular and the entire life-cycle of these resources activities in general, which are designed to promote effective energy resource operations, towards affordable, reliable, sustainable and efficient modern energy services to all societies and individuals around the globe. Law is a system of binding modes of conduct, which are formulated to govern behavioural patterns, namely the behaviour of individuals, groups and entities in society. The aim of this socio-legal study is to examine the role of law as a mechanism of social engineering, positive change and dynamic progress in society, towards providing access to energy services for all (overall public good), by 2030 (the target year proclaimed by the UN) regarding delivery of sustainable modern energy services to all. The study arrives at the finding that law remains a significant and inevitable tool for governing behavioural patterns; nevertheless, in developing countries suffering from energy poverty like Nigeria, law is unfortunately an unresolved necessity in respect of governing energy resources operations for the daily sustenance and survival of humans and society at large. Keywords: Law; Ethics; Energy Resources; Extractive Industrial Operations (EIOs); Petroleum Resources; Non-renewable Resources; Renewable Energy Resources; Sustainable Development (SD); Nigeria; Niger Delta; Bad Political Leadership (Bad Governance); Good Governance; Morality (Morality-in-action: Morally Good Actions); Natural Law (Natural Law School of Thought); Positive Law Theory (Positive Law School of Thought). DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/81-09 Publication date: April 30 th 2020