An Analysis of Costs and Solutions to High Recidivism Rates in Florida

Abstract

Recidivism affects a significant portion of convicted offenders. It represents the culmination of many factors like social isolation, a lack of work opportunities, and drug abuse. This project evaluates the risks and costs of recidivism in Florida's correctional facilities in terms of the physical cost of incarceration and the social cost that imprisonment has on communities. We derive and analyze data from six main sources: past recidivism trends from the Florida Department of Corrections, data of police employment, data of median income data, drug arrest data, and data of unemployment trends. We then evaluate the feasibility of measures involving drug rehabilitation, educational programs, police employment increases to discourage recidivism and facilitate reentry into society by using symbolic regression to calculate future trends. The R-squared values ranged from 65.4% to 97.3%. A primary component analysis (PCA) was performed with post hoc Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin, which yielded a value < 0.6, and Bartlett’s Sphericity, which yielded a value <<< 0.0001, tests, suggesting a substantial correlation. A Monte Carlo analysis was then performed to predict the total instances of recidivism through 2024. This research showed that increasing police efficiency and investing in drug rehabilitation services should be prioritized by the state of Florida.