Abstract
Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has become a global consensus in response to global warming and climate change, especially to China, the largest CO2 emitter in the world. Most studies have focused on CO2 emissions from the production sector, however, the household sector plays an important role in the total energy-related CO2 emissions. This study formulates an integrated model based on logarithmic mean Divisia index methodology and a system dynamics model to dynamically simulate household energy consumption and CO2 emissions under different conditions. Results show the following: (1) the integrated model performs well in calculating the contribution of influencing factors on household CO2 emissions and analyzing the options for CO2 emission mitigation; (2) the increase in income is the dominant driving force of household CO2 emissions, and as a result of the improved standard of living in China a sustained increase in household CO2 emissions can be expected; (3) with decreasing energy intensity, CO2 emissions will decrease to 404.26 Mt-CO2 in 2020, which is 9.84% lower than the emissions in 2014; (4) the reduction potential by developing non-fossil energy sources is limited, and raising the rate of urbanization cannot reduce the household CO2 emission under the comprehensive influence of other factors.
Highlights
Carbon dioxide (CO2 ), which is the prominent greenhouse gas that can result in global warming and climate change, has caused widespread concern in the international community [1]
In order to reveal the dynamical mechanism of household CO2 emissions, an integrated model named model (Figure 1) is built in this study
[44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58], while the CO2 emission factors of each energy type are given by the Energy
Summary
Carbon dioxide (CO2 ), which is the prominent greenhouse gas that can result in global warming and climate change, has caused widespread concern in the international community [1]. Many scholars have conducted considerable research on CO2 , such as the measurement of regional CO2 emission amounts and analyses of its evolution trends [2,3], relationships between population, economy and CO2 emissions [4], the influencing factors of energy consumption and CO2 emission [5,6,7], and policies to reduce CO2 emissions [8,9]. During the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in 2009, the Chinese government committed to reduce its CO2 emissions per unit of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 by 40% to 45%. After the industry and transportation sectors, the household sector has the most significant influence on the total energy-related CO2 emissions [10]. Reducing household CO2 emissions has attracted increasing attention, and several studies have quantified household CO2 emissions for various countries, such as Italy [11], USA [12], UK [13], Ireland [14] and China [15,16,17]
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