Abstract
An Exponential Smoothing Model (ESM) of brand choice is presented which possesses a mathematical structure very similar to that of the Linear Learning Model (LLM) of brand choice. While the LLM is posited on adaptive learning (purchase event feedback) by the consumer, the ESM is basically a forecasting model, i.e., a forecast of the consumer's brand choice probability on the next purchase occasion is obtained from his previous purchase history by weighting recent information more heavily.
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