An algorithm to predict the need for invasive mechanical ventilation in hospitalized COVID-19 patients: the experience in Sao Paulo.

Abstract

We aimed to characterize patients hospitalized for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and identify predictors of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). We performed a retrospective cohort study in patients with COVID-19 admitted to a private network in Sao Paulo, Brazil from March to October 2020. Patients were compared in three subgroups: non-intensive care unit (ICU) admission (group A), ICU admission without receiving IMV (group B) and IMV requirement (group C). We developed logistic regression algorithm to identify predictors of IMV. We analyzed 1,650 patients, the median age was 53 years (42-65) and 986 patients (59.8%) were male. The median duration from symptom onset to hospital admission was 7 days (5-9) and the main comorbidities were hypertension (42.4%), diabetes (24.2%) and obesity (15.8%). We found differences among subgroups in laboratory values obtained at hospital admission. The predictors of IMV (odds ratio and 95% confidence interval [CI]) were male (1.81 [1.11-2.94], P=0.018), age (1.03 [1.02-1.05], P<0.001), obesity (2.56 [1.57-4.15], P<0.001), duration from symptom onset to admission (0.91 [0.85-0.98], P=0.011), arterial oxygen saturation (0.95 [0.92- 0.99], P=0.012), C-reactive protein (1.005 [1.002-1.008], P<0.001), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (1.046 [1.005-1.089], P=0.029) and lactate dehydrogenase (1.005 [1.003-1.007], P<0.001). The area under the curve values were 0.860 (95% CI, 0.829-0.892) in the development cohort and 0.801 (95% CI, 0.733-0.870) in the validation cohort. Patients had distinct clinical and laboratory parameters early in hospital admission. Our prediction model may enable focused care in patients at high risk of IMV.