An aggregate method to calibrate the reference point of cumulative prospect theory-based route choice model for urban transit network

Abstract

Transit route choice model is the key technology of public transit systems planning and management. Traditional route choice models are mostly based on expected utility theory which has an evident shortcoming that it cannot accurately portray travelers’ subjective route choice behavior for their risk preferences are not taken into consideration. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT), a brand new theory, can be used to describe travelers’ decision-making process under the condition of uncertainty of transit supply and risk preferences of multi-type travelers. The method to calibrate the reference point, a key parameter to CPT-based transit route choice model, determines the precision of the model to a great extent. In this paper, a new method is put forward to obtain the value of reference point which combines theoretical calculation and field investigation results. Comparing the proposed method with traditional method, it shows that the new method can promote the quality of CPT-based model by improving the accuracy in simulating travelers’ route choice behaviors based on transit trip investigation from Nanjing City, China. The proposed method is of great significance to logical transit planning and management, and to some extent makes up the defect that obtaining the reference point is solely based on qualitative analysis.