An Agent-Based Modeling Framework for Simulating Human Exposure to Environmental Stresses in Urban Areas

Liang Yang,Peter Hoffmann,Jana Fischereit,Ingenuin Gasser,Jürgen Scheffran,Sven Rühe

doi:10.3390/urbansci2020036

Liang Yang, Peter Hoffmann + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci2020036

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Journal: Urban Science	Publication Date: Apr 17, 2018
Citations: 22	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Kiel University, Universität Hamburg

Abstract

Several approaches have been used to assess potential human exposure to environmental stresses and achieve optimal results under various conditions, such as for example, for different scales, groups of people, or points in time. A thorough literature review in this paper identifies the research gap regarding modeling approaches for assessing human exposure to environment stressors, and it indicates that microsimulation tools are becoming increasingly important in human exposure assessments of urban environments, in which each person is simulated individually and continuously. The paper further describes an agent-based model (ABM) framework that can dynamically simulate human exposure levels, along with their daily activities, in urban areas that are characterized by environmental stresses such as air pollution and heat stress. Within the framework, decision-making processes can be included for each individual based on rule-based behavior in order to achieve goals under changing environmental conditions. The ideas described in this paper are implemented in a free and open source NetLogo platform. A basic modeling scenario of the ABM framework in Hamburg, Germany, demonstrates its utility in various urban environments and individual activity patterns, as well as its portability to other models, programs, and frameworks. The prototype model can potentially be extended to support environmental incidence management through exploring the daily routines of different groups of citizens, and comparing the effectiveness of different strategies. Further research is needed to fully develop an operational version of the model.

Highlights

This, in turn, will help to integrate substantive considerations of individual well-being into the long-term planning, development, and management of urban environments
This paper presents an agent-based modeling framework for dynamic microsimulations of urban individual exposures to environmental stresses, along with their daily activities in urban areas
Decision-making processes are included for each individual based on rule-based behavior to achieve goals under changing environmental conditions

Summary

Introduction

A series of climate change-related risk factors Urban Sci. 2018, 2, 36 typhoons and extreme precipitation, inland and coastal floods) pose serious risks to human society [1]. The strength and frequency of many risk factors tends to increase. The occurrence of these hazards often stresses human health and welfare, e.g., through diseases, property damage, economic loss, and ecological environment degradation. Extreme rainfall causes urban flooding, which often leads to large economic losses and serious threats to urban safety [2], while heat waves are harmful to public health, especially to vulnerable groups, which is the most significant reason of weather-related deaths [3]. The impacts of air pollution, drought, wind, snow, and freezing weather on the normal operation of the city are becoming increasingly prominent [4]

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