An Agent-Based Model of Population Dynamics for the European Regions

Abstract

AbstractThe aims of this paper are to present and to discuss an agent-based model of population dynamics for the European regions at NUTS 3 level. It includes individuals that perform several activities with bounded rationality. The paper briefly discusses the latest novelties on this topic and then describes the processes to prepare a data base with the necessary information to feed and calibrate the model. Then it is presented the initialization module. It generates individual heterogeneity according to average and marginal aggregate distributions of the included variables that characterize the agents. In order to simulate the mechanisms of migration our model creates an artificial labor demand at regional level using simple but effective rules based on mainstream economic theory. The rest of the model is also presented: education, pairing, aging and deceases. A set of scenarios is defined and the regional aggregates are computed. Hence, the results are prepared to be visualized with tables, graphics and maps.IntroductionIn the hereby presented article, an agent-based model of population dynamics for the European regions at NUTS 3 level is discussed. Before proceeding to the presentation of the model details and description of the preparation of the data bases needed to feed and calibrate this model, let the latest advances on this topic be presented. Thus, we will introduce how agent-based models have been used to model the population dynamics, paying also attention to the importance of labour market.Nowadays, population dynamics is the field of study of the highest interest. It joins the results extracted from the economics, demography studies and sociology. All of them have their own methodologies of studies and all of them present new techniques of population dynamics and related phenomena modelling1-2.In Semi-Artificial Models of Populations: Connecting Demography with Agent-Based-Modelling3 the authors present a seminal paper of an agent-based model of the dynamics of mortality, fertility, and partnership formation. They propose that directly linking demographic methods with ABM frameworks will allow us to produce models which increase our understanding of population change, while simultaneously helping us to avoid the pitfalls of an over-dependence on empirical data. ABMs allow us to produce models which have a greater explanatory capacity, while the demographic components allow to use the inherent flexibility of the ABM approach to generate plausible scenarios within a given parameter space. In this article they present an agent-based model that emphasize on the partner formation and they combine it with survivorship and birth rates empirical and projected.Our agent-based model, developed at the same time, follows the same path and develops an agentbased model with the same features as the cited one, but ours is focus on the importance of the labor market and migration patterns. These two relevant parts are not taken into account by Silverman and his co-authors, but they may be fundamental in economies as the ones of PIGS countries, where the long-term unemployment and the inexistent recovery expectations urge a part of the population to change their location. Hence, migration patterns within European countries also affect the overall population dynamics. These patterns have been incorporated in MULTIPOLES model. It has represented an important step in the next generation of models to study the population dynamics, and it includes births and deceases and migrations, improving the results obtained by the official statistics services4.The key feature that has not been taken into account in the paper previously mentioned was the importance of migration. Nevertheless, the study of migration dynamics has been modeled according to the agent-based approach premises recently. The ABM technique is one of the most promising techniques that have been used in population and labor market modelling. …