An Agent-Based Socio-Economic Analysis of Winter Tourism Development in the Alpine Region

Abstract

A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine Region is amongst the most sensitive socio-ecosystems to climate change impacts. Our model represents the winter tourism socioecosystem of Auronzo di Cadore, located in the Dolomites (Italy), which economic and environmental conditions are highly vulnerable to climate variations. This agent-based model includes height types of agents corresponding to different winter tourist profiles based on their socio-economic background and activity targets. Validation of the profiles is carried out both empirically and through direct interaction of local stakeholders with the model. We use the model for assessing three hypothetical and contrasted infrastructure-oriented adaptation strategies for the winter tourism industry. These strategies have been previously discussed with local stakeholders, as possible alternatives to the ‘business-as-usual’ situation. These strategies are tested against multiple future scenarios that include: future weather conditions in terms of snow cover and temperature, the future composition and total number of tourists and the type of market competition. We consider a set of socio-economic indicators that are strongly coupled with relevant environmental changes in order to draw conclusions on the robustness of the selected strategies.