An agent-based modeling approach to project adoption of water reuse and evaluate expansion plans within a sociotechnical water infrastructure system

Abstract

The introduction of water reuse infrastructure into an existing water supply system is a complex sociotechnical process. For a dual reticulation program, infrastructure designs affect adoption, as the expansion of infrastructure defines when a household can adopt and become active in communicating about water reuse. This research develops a coupled framework to capture the dynamics among consumer adoption and infrastructure expansion. An agent-based modeling approach is used to simulate opinion dynamics within a risk publics framework, which is based on the social amplification of risk and captures changes in perceptions about the risks and benefits of water reuse. The model is applied to simulate and project adoption of water reuse for the Town of Cary, North Carolina, using data about new water reclamation accounts and plans for infrastructure expansion. Performance of the agent-based model is compared with a cellular automata model for simulating historic data. Alternative infrastructure expansion schedules are simulated using the agent-based model to evaluate potable water savings and utilization of reclaimed water capacity, based on adoption projections. The framework provides a sociotechnical approach to evaluate development plans for infrastructure systems that rely on adoption of infrastructure-dependent technologies.