An agent-based modeling approach for simulating the impact of small unmanned aircraft systems on future battlefields

Abstract

The increasing proliferation of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUASs) is forcing a paradigm shift in military doctrine surrounding counter-sUAS and sUAS deployment tactics. This work describes an agent-based model that incorporates established infantry small unit tactics with the ability to deploy sUASs to aid in surveillance and indirect fire targeting. The model is based on current military doctrine and real warfighter experiences and is presented as a foundation from which additional simulation capabilities and analyses may be created. A series of randomly generated situations sets a defending force with the potential to have sUAS capabilities against a superior attacking force without sUAS capabilities. A control case considers defenders without sUAS capabilities. In six experimental cases, defending forces deploy a single sUAS in one of six patrol patterns as a surveillance and indirect fire targeting tool. Subsequent analysis reveals that sUASs generally increase the odds of defender survival during an engagement and that short-range, concentrated patrol patterns lead to higher odds of defender survival and increased indirect fire opportunities. A battery of analyses showcase the model’s capabilities in terms of exploring novel sUAS implementation strategies and illustrating the impact of those strategies over a range of combat effectiveness metrics.