An agent-based model for regional market penetration of electric vehicles in Brazil

Abstract

Electrified vehicle (EV) are increasingly being adopted worldwide, making them promising elements in the decarbonisation process of the automotive sector. However, forecasting EV demand presents a significant challenge for policymakers worldwide. Our study proposes an agent-based simulation model that aggregates the behaviour of individual agents and generates cumulative adoption numbers through the Bass diffusion model. This approach enables using different parameters and extends previous research on actions to improve EV adoption rates in Brazil. Our investigation of the market introduction of EV using a multi-year dataset of EV buyers and marketed vehicle models reveals that acquisition cost is the primary driver of the adoption process. Still, barriers to electric mobility are also associated with vehicle-specific factors such as range, battery capacity, maintenance cost, recharging time, acquisition cost and number of EV sold. These findings emphasise the need to develop more effective policies and strategies for promoting EV adoption in Brazil, considering the factors that affect consumer behaviour and the adoption process. Doing so can accelerate the transition towards a more sustainable transportation system and reduce carbon emissions in the automotive sector.