An agent-based model for public travel decision-making considering risk perception on the pandemic

Abstract

Travel is an essential part of life for most people. Tourism is a very important part of the industry in most countries, and the prosperity of tourism is of great significance to promote the economic development of a country. After the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the development of tourism has entered a through. To explore public travel decision-making considering risk perception under the pandemic, we developed an agent-based model. In the model, we assumed that agents make decisions based on their willingness to travel and risk perception. We also combined the model with a model of opinion dynamics to explore the effect of government risk information on the number of trips. Our results show that individual travel probability decrease when considering risk perception on the pandemic. In the case of medium government credibility, the risk information released by the government has less impact on the number of people traveling.