An Agent-Based Model for Electric Energy Policy Assessment

Abstract

This paper proposes an agent-based modelling (ABM) framework to evaluate sustainable policies in large electric energy systems with considerable renewable power penetration. Policy making in electric energy systems is generally a multistage process with different characteristics including long-term dynamics, uncertainty, and multi-dimensionality. The policy evaluation thus as a major stage, examines the proposed policies before embarking to an implementation stage. Potential features of agent-based modelling are employed effectively to propose a modelling framework by taking into account complex characteristics of policy making. The proposed ABM classifies and defines clearly all major players in the energy systems with their unique rules, attributes, and interactions. It is applied to a typical large system with different electricity generation technologies including renewable to evaluate a series of policy scenarios. The policy evaluation based on the ABM reveals that non-competent or unsustainable energy policies may have non-obvious outcomes leading to long term electricity shortfall or harm the environment.