Abstract
In recent years, there have been significant changes in weather patterns, mainly caused by sharp increases in temperature, increases in carbon dioxide, and fluctuations in precipitation levels, negatively impacting agricultural production. Agricultural systems are characterized by being vulnerable to the variation of biophysical and socioeconomic factors involved in the development of agricultural activities. Agent-based models (ABMs) enable the study, analysis, and management of ecosystems through their ability to represent networks and their spatial nature. In this research, an ABM is developed to evaluate the behavior and determine the vulnerability in the sugarcane agricultural system; allowing the capitalization of knowledge through characteristics such as social ability and autonomy of the modeled agents through fuzzy logic and system dynamics. The methodology used includes information networks for a dynamic assessment of agricultural risk modeled by time series, system dynamics, uncertain parameters, and experience; which are developed in three stages: vulnerability indicators, crop vulnerability, and total system vulnerability. The development of ABM, a greater impact on the environmental contingency is noted due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the exponential increase in extreme meteorological phenomena threatening the cultivation of sugarcane, making the agricultural sector more vulnerable and reducing the yield of the harvest.
Highlights
IntroductionIn Mexico, agricultural activities have a greater impact on the rural and industrial environment as it is the main source of income and food supplies through the exploitation of natural resources and positions itself as one of the main means of employment for the rural population [1].Agricultural activities that heavily depend on the weather have a high vulnerability because of changes in climate patterns, mainly rainfall and extreme weather phenomena such as drought, extreme rain, hailstorms, and cyclones are having negative effects on agricultural activities causing the loss of crops globally and a decrease in food security [2].The main impacts on the agricultural sector include, but are not limited to, severe damage to crops, soil erosion, inability to cultivate due to soil water saturation, adverse effects on water quality, water stress, and increased death of livestock [3]
Where the major benefits stand out: (i) a combination of social and environmental models; (ii) Management of environmental aspects and (iii) Modeling of information networks, which are composed of individual entities that serve as decision-making aids
In the multi-agent system, the communication between the agents offers the possibility of interacting with one another as shown in the vulnerability values in stages 1 and 2; As the vulnerability is lower in stage 2, this is an indication that the crop has a low harvest risk due to weather conditions and the good management of the agricultural practices used, which helps to minimize the impact of the external factors mentioned in stage 1
Summary
In Mexico, agricultural activities have a greater impact on the rural and industrial environment as it is the main source of income and food supplies through the exploitation of natural resources and positions itself as one of the main means of employment for the rural population [1].Agricultural activities that heavily depend on the weather have a high vulnerability because of changes in climate patterns, mainly rainfall and extreme weather phenomena such as drought, extreme rain, hailstorms, and cyclones are having negative effects on agricultural activities causing the loss of crops globally and a decrease in food security [2].The main impacts on the agricultural sector include, but are not limited to, severe damage to crops, soil erosion, inability to cultivate due to soil water saturation, adverse effects on water quality, water stress, and increased death of livestock [3]. When speaking of the vulnerability of agricultural activities to climate change, extreme meteorological phenomena should be considered and the expected environmental impacts such as incidence of forest fires, increase in pests and diseases, problems with water quality, and temperature variation; this results in lower crop yields caused by heat in warmer environments. The effects generated by climate change have had serious repercussions on the environment, mainly impacting agricultural systems These impacts are mainly based on variations in variables such as temperature and precipitation levels. The incidence of weather events produces significant changes in crop yields, mainly affecting the economic sector of the agricultural supply chain [9,10,11,12]
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