Abstract
Disaster risk management (DRM) is the application of disaster risk reduction policies and strategies to reduce existing disaster risk and manage residual risk. However, due to dynamic human factors, it is challenging to depict and assess the effectiveness of DRM measures, and their implementation usually lacks a sufficient evidence-based evaluation process. Therefore, this study developed an agent-based model to integrate dynamic human behaviors into the DRM measures and evaluated their effectiveness in casualty reduction. The model was calibrated to simulate the debris flow event at Longchi town, China in 13 August 2010. The early warning system (EWS) and related DRM measures were taken as examples. The effectiveness of different DRM measures was quantitated by comparing the number of potential casualties. The main findings were: 1) EWS was very effective for community-based DRM as it could significantly decrease the average casualties by 30%. 2) Credibility of EWS was critical to its effectiveness. Less credible EWS might reduce its effectiveness by 9%. 3) EWS could be supplemented by other measures to further reduce casualties by 6%. 4) The downside effects of other DRM measures to EWS might exist and reduce its effectiveness by up to 5%. This study put forward an evidence-based approach to help policymakers select more cost-effective DRM measure, especially in the less developed countries where the available resources for DRM are limited.
Highlights
Disasters can bring devastating loss of life and injuries as well as damages to critical lifelines and infrastructures
This study explored the effect of disaster risk management (DRM) measure and found that disaster shelter and incentive plans could further reduce casualties up to 6% and 4%, respectively, compared with early warning system (EWS) alone
By integrating comprehensive components and mechanisms, the DRM measures are complicated with multiple approaches and numerous influential factors, and it is challenging to quantify the effectiveness
Summary
Disasters can bring devastating loss of life and injuries as well as damages to critical lifelines and infrastructures. Disasters are more threatening than we ever expected to the social, environmental, and economic components of sustainable development, and subsequently, there is an increasing demand for taking ambitious actions to disaster risk management (DRM). Governments are liable to ensure the safety of residents, critical lifelines, and infrastructure. Due to the variety of Relating Human Dynamic to DRM community settings regarding residents and facilities, DRM measures would not effectively reduce disaster risks without considering these factors. Instead, when implemented to the community level, the DRM needs to precisely tailor its measures for the locals, including the environmental and social conditions of communities and individual differences of their residents
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