An advanced framework for net electricity consumption prediction: Incorporating novel machine learning models and optimization algorithms

Abstract

In recent years, the escalating demand for electric energy has underscored the need for robust prediction models capable of accurately anticipating consumption patterns. The imperative lies in enabling utilities and policymakers to optimize resource allocation, strategically plan infrastructure development, and ensure the stability and efficiency of the power grid. This study undertakes a comprehensive comparative analysis of machine learning techniques employed in predicting net electricity consumption in Turkey. The primary goal is to augment the accuracy and performance of electricity load forecasting, thereby contributing to effective energy management and fostering sustainable development within the power sector. Two machine learning models, including CatBoost and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), are strategically integrated with optimization algorithms such as Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA), Phasor Particle Swarm Optimization (PPSO), and Hybrid Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO). The core analysis centers on evaluating the performance of these integrated models based on key accuracy metrics and runtime efficiency. Notably, the results underscore that the XGBoost-SSA model emerges as the superior performer, exhibiting heightened accuracy and superior performance in predicting electricity consumption. This model showcases the highest coefficient of determination (R2) value and demonstrates lower errors during the testing phase, thereby presenting a promising and effective approach for electricity consumption prediction in the specific context of Turkey.