An advanced Bayesian parameter estimation methodology for concrete dams combining an improved extraction technique of hydrostatic component and hybrid response surface method

Abstract

It is very important to estimate the mechanical parameters based on monitoring data for investigating the operation behavior of concrete dams. In this paper, an advanced Bayesian parameter estimation method for concrete dams is proposed. The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is adopted to extract the aging component of the observed deformation sequence, and the hydrostatic component is separated from the remaining periodic term through the statistical regression model (SRM). A hybrid response surface method (HRSM) is proposed as a surrogate model for finite element method (FEM) simulation. The likelihood function, which reflects the error between the observed and simulated deformation, is constructed, then the Bayesian formula for parameter estimation is established. The transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) algorithm is used to obtain the parameter posterior distribution. The proposed method is applied to estimate the elastic modulus of the GD concrete dam, the parameter posterior distribution is obtained through the fusion of monitoring information and parameter prior information. This method can also avoid the issues of multiple solutions and unreasonable parameter combinations, which may exist in traditional deterministic inversion methods. The case study shows that the proposed method has good applicability in the parameter estimation of concrete dams.