An Adaptive Two‐stage Design with Treatment Selection Using the Conditional Error Function Approach

Abstract

As an approach to combining the phase II dose finding trial and phase III pivotal trials, we propose a two-stage adaptive design that selects the best among several treatments in the first stage and tests significance of the selected treatment in the second stage. The approach controls the type I error defined as the probability of selecting a treatment and claiming its significance when the selected treatment is indifferent from placebo, as considered in Bischoff and Miller (2005). Our approach uses the conditional error function and allows determining the conditional type I error function for the second stage based on information observed at the first stage in a similar way to that for an ordinary adaptive design without treatment selection. We examine properties such as expected sample size and stage-2 power of this design with a given type I error and a maximum stage-2 sample size under different hypothesis configurations. We also propose a method to find the optimal conditional error function of a simple parametric form to improve the performance of the design and have derived optimal designs under some hypothesis configurations. Application of this approach is illustrated by a hypothetical example.