An Adaptive Evolving Fuzzy Technique for Prognosis of Dynamic Systems

Abstract

The evolving fuzzy technique is a recent development in the soft-computing field that has shown some promising results in applications such as control, classification, and short-term prediction. However, evolving fuzzy techniques still have challenges in terms of high-speed processing of cluster/rule generation, especially in long-term prediction applications due to the broader distribution of the input space. These factors can lead to problems such as overfitting in optimization and high computational costs, which could limit their applications in real-time monitoring. In this article, an adaptive evolving fuzzy (AEF) technique consisting of two novel aspects is developed to tackle these problems. First, an error-assessment method is suggested to monitor the trend of the cumulative training errors and to control the fuzzy cluster evolving process. Second, an adaptive particle filter algorithm is proposed to optimize the fuzzy clusters in order to enhance incremental learning and improve modeling efficiency. The effectiveness of the proposed AEF predictor is verified by simulation tests; it is also implemented for battery remaining useful life forecasting. Test results have shown that the proposed AEF technique can effectively capture the system's dynamic characteristics with fewer rules and can provide more flexibility in fuzzy modeling.