An active search for solutions in agricultural systems: A decision analysis perspective

Abstract

Introduction / objective: Nowadays society demands from agricultural systems not only the provision of goods for the market but also environmental and social services. This transformation is a challenge due to the unpredictability of executing actions in a complex system with no certainty that it will lead to the desired outcome. This perspective paper describes the application of Decision Analysis (DA) for such uncertain scenarios of decision-making in agricultural systems. Methodology: This paper describes a general protocol for the implementation of DA, proposes a temporal-spatial framework for the application of DA in agricultural systems using concepts of Decision Theory and strategic planning, and introduces a case study for describing how this framework can be applied to agricultural innovation systems. Results: Problems in agricultural systems can be outlined as decision analysis models of specific spatial-temporal scale (planning horizons). This framework has potential for the application of DA in the planning efforts of the Colombian National Agricultural Innovation System, but especially in the implementation of Regional Innovation Systems. Conclusions: We provided an extended DA framework aimed to constitute a sound basis for finding solutions in the complex setting of agricultural systems, for planning actions of science, technology and innovation and for supporting the decision making process of sustainability transformation of agricultural systems.