An accurate prediction of negative lymph node metastasis with consideration of glucose metabolism in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer.

Abstract

We aimed to identify risk factors in lymph node metastasis in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and predict lymph node metastasis. A total of 416 patients with clinical stage IA2-3 NSCLC who underwent lobectomy and lymph node dissection between July 2016 and December 2020 at National Cancer Center Hospital East were included. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to develop a model for predicting lymph node metastasis. Leave-one-out cross-validation was performed to evaluate the developing prediction model, and sensitivity, specificity, and concordance statistics were calculated to evaluate its diagnostic performance. The formula for calculating the probability of pathological lymph node metastasis included SUVmax of the primary tumor and serum CEA level. The concordance statistics was 0.7452. When the cutoff value associated with the risk of incorrectly predicting pathological lymph node metastasis was 7.2%, the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for predicting metastasis were 96.4% and 38.6%, respectively. We created a prediction model for lymph node metastasis in NSCLC by combining the SUVmax of the primary tumor and serum CEA levels, which showed a particularly strong association. This model is clinically useful as it successfully predicts negative lymph node metastasis in patients with clinical stage IA2-3 NSCLC.