Abstract
.Ixodes scapularis is the vector of at least seven human pathogens in Minnesota, two of which are known to cause Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto and Borrelia mayonii). In Minnesota, the statewide incidence of Lyme disease and other I. scapularis–borne diseases and the geographic extent over which cases have been reported have both increased substantially over the last two decades. These changes correspond with an expanding distribution of I. scapularis over a similar time frame. Because the risk of exposure to I. scapularis–borne pathogens is likely related to the number of ticks encountered, we developed an acarological risk model predicting the density of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs (DON) in Minnesota. The model was informed by sampling 81 sites located in 42 counties in Minnesota. Two main foci were predicted by the model to support elevated densities of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs, which included the seven-county Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area and counties in northern Minnesota, including Lake of the Woods and Koochiching counties. There was substantial heterogeneity observed in predicted DON across the state at the county scale; however, counties classified as high risk for I. scapularis–borne diseases and counties with known established populations of I. scapularis had the highest proportion of the county predicted as suitable for host-seeking nymphs (≥ 0.13 nymphs/100 m2). The model provides insight into areas of potential I. scapularis population expansion and identifies focal areas of predicted suitable habitat within counties where the incidence of I. scapularis–borne diseases has been historically low.
Highlights
In the United States, Lyme disease, caused by infection with Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto or less commonly by the newly discovered organism Borrelia mayonii, is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease.[1,2] An average of 30,000 Lyme disease cases are reported each year, representing a 3-fold increase from 1992 to 2013, and most Lyme disease cases are reported from the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and upper Midwestern United States.[1]
Because the risk of exposure to I. scapularis–borne pathogens is likely related to the number of ticks encountered, we developed an acarological risk model predicting the density of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs (DON) in Minnesota
There was substantial heterogeneity observed in predicted DON across the state at the county scale; counties classified as high risk for I. scapularis–borne diseases and counties with known established populations of I. scapularis had the highest proportion of the county predicted as suitable for host-seeking nymphs (3 0.13 nymphs/100 m2)
Summary
In the United States, Lyme disease, caused by infection with Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto or less commonly by the newly discovered organism Borrelia mayonii, is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease.[1,2] An average of 30,000 Lyme disease cases are reported each year, representing a 3-fold increase from 1992 to 2013, and most Lyme disease cases are reported from the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and upper Midwestern United States.[1]. Some of the most dramatic increases in the occurrence of Lyme disease and other I. scapularis–borne illnesses have been observed in Minnesota, where, from 1992 to 2006, the percentage of counties reporting at least one human case of Lyme disease increased from 33% to 74%.5. From 1996 to 2011, there was a substantial and significant increase in the incidence of Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis.[6] Along with a statewide increase in the incidence of I. scapularis–borne diseases, counties reporting human cases of I. scapularis– borne diseases[6] and established populations of I. scapularis have expanded geographically.[3]
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