An abstract model of gentrification as a spatially contagious succession process

Abstract

The paper describes a simple, abstract model to simulate gentrification from both supply and demand side perspectives. Three theories—rent gap theory, filtering theory and household life cycle theory—are employed to construct a combined cellular automaton and agent-based model. This abstract model has good potential for simulating urban development. It exhibits a distinctive relationship between the spatial dynamics of gentrification patterns and different rent gap thresholds and rent gap impacts: at low rent gap thresholds and limited rent gap impact, renovation events occur at all locations leading to a mixed rent map distribution. As the rent gap threshold and rent gap impact increase, gentrification becomes more spatially concentrated, leading to spatially segregated rent patterns. Also, gentrification starts in run-down areas neighboring wealthier regions in agreement with empirically observed gentrification.